China’s population declined for the second year in a row in 2023, which presents problems for the second-largest economy in the world as its labor force shrinks.
The continued attempts to encourage larger families and expedite residence registration were ineffective in spurring population expansion. By the end of 2023, China’s population would have decreased significantly by 2.08 million, according to the National Statistics Office, to 1.409 billion. This was the first reduction since 1961, during the Great Famine led by Mao Zedong, when 850,000 was recorded in 2022.
After falling to a record low of 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2022, the birth rate in 2023 reached a new low of 6.39 births per 1,000 people. At the same time, China’s death rate increased from 7.37 per 1,000 people in 2022 to 7.87 per 1,000 after COVID limitations were lifted in late 2022. The number of deaths linked to COVID-19 was not disclosed by the government; however, estimations from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in the United States indicated that 1.87 million people died between December 2022 and January 2023.
Critics, like University of Michigan demographer Yun Zhou, raised concerns about the veracity of government statistics and suggested that COVID deaths may not have been fully reported. The population reduction, according to researcher Cai Fang of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, is the “new normal,” and it peaked in 2021. In a research, Moody’s cautioned about the possible long-term effects, which might include growing healthcare and social spending along with a growing fiscal deficit and debt load as a result of decreased labor supply and productivity.
India now holds the record for the most people on Earth at 1.425 billion, surpassing China in April of the previous year.As a result of one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, 1.2 births per woman in 2022, the UN predicted that China’s population may go below 1 billion by the end of the century. For the population to remain stable, there must be 2.1 births per woman.
In response, China decided to lift the two-child limit per family in 2021, enabling families to have up to three children. There was a contentious one-child policy in place before to 2015. Municipalities relaxed the requirements for young people moving from rural regions to register as households in an effort to encourage urban settlement. These steps, however, proved ineffective because China’s dropping birthrate is consistent with tendencies observed in other low-fertility nations, such as Japan.
President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of encouraging women to contribute to nation-building and advocated for guidance to shape young people’s perspectives on marriage, childbearing, and family. Despite these efforts, marriage registration declined for nine consecutive years, reaching 6.833 million pairs in 2022, approximately half the number from a decade earlier. Factors contributing to this decline include gender imbalance, delayed marriages, housing affordability concerns, and uncertainties about the country’s economic prospects.
As China grapples with the complexities of a shrinking population, the road to fertility recovery appears challenging, echoing the experiences of other nations facing similar demographic trends. The multifaceted nature of these challenges demands continued attention and innovative strategies to address the intricate interplay of societal, economic, and policy factors influencing population dynamics.
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