In crucial state votes, Germany’s changing political environment is put to the test.
On Sunday, regional elections will be held in the German states of Bavaria and Hesse. These elections are largely seen as a litmus test for Germany’s altering political environment.
Despite the fact that most other major parties have ruled out working with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), it is expected to gain ground in both states.
The results of Sunday’s elections won’t likely be shocking, but they will reveal how much of a hold the AfD has over the various areas.
They might also convey a strong message to the federal government when discontent over important topics like inflation, immigration, and climate change policy increases.
One important question is whether Scholz’s ruling coalition in Bavaria and Hesse, which refers to the colors of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Free Democratic Party (FDP), and Greens, not receiving support, will increase support for conservative opposition or whether the far-right will instead capture votes from an angry electorate.
Dissatisfaction with the German federal government in Hesse, which is home to Frankfurt, the financial center of Germany, poses a challenge to Scholz’s coalition. The regional election won’t have a significant impact on national politics, but Scholz’s SPD-led administration’s lack of support in Hesse could be a warning omen before the nation’s next federal election.
Germany’s largest state, Bavaria, a conservative Catholic region famous for its bratwurst, lederhosen, and Oktoberfest beer halls, has been dealing with the same problems as the rest of the nation: immigration, rising energy prices, and a failing economy.
Meanwhile, a recent antisemitism issue involving the economy minister of Bavaria has shocked Germany and led to calls for his resignation.
The conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), a sister organization of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has been the dominant force in Bavaria since 1949.
In Sunday’s crucial election, Bavarian Minister-President Markus Söder hopes to maintain his present ruling coalition with the right-wing Free Voters (FW) and the CSU.
However, given that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is anticipated to receive a new record number of votes, the political climate could shift.
It happens at a time when the CDU, which ruled for the majority of Germany’s post-war history, has reached a fork in the road. The party, which is known as the traditional conservatives in the nation, changed its stance on immigration under the leadership of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, welcoming refugees as an essential component of Germany’s future.
However, some have criticized the party’s increasingly liberal views, claiming that they no longer represent Germany’s middle class. As a result, some people have switched from the party to the AfD.
In the most recent state elections in 2018, the AfD made its debut in Bavaria and finished fourth with 10% of the vote. The CSU, which lost its absolute majority and saw the AfD wrest control of Bavaria’s state government, was largely seen as having suffered an embarrassment as a result of the outcome.
In the state legislature of Bavaria, the CSU had only missed the required number of seats by two in 2008, the first time it has done so since 1954. The party has always received close to 50% of the vote in Bavaria.
Recent surveys indicate that the AfD is currently on course to surpass its popularity from 2018, with the party receiving about 15% of the vote.
The AfD has already made strides in Germany’s once communist east, with an INSA (Institute for New Social Answers) survey released in September revealing that it had for the first time surpassed the CDU in the eastern state of Saxony.
However, there has been a noticeable backlash against the far-right party in the days running up to the election, with tens of thousands protesting against it on the streets of Munich, the capital of Bavaria, on Wednesday.
Holocaust survivor and former head of the Central Council of Jews in Germany Charlotte Knoblauch urged the masses of protesters, saying, “It must be clear to everyone: What starts to slide today can bury our democracy under itself tomorrow.”
Before Sunday’s election, Katrin-Ebner Steiner, the co-leader of the AfD in Bavaria, spoke with CNN with contempt for the other parties in Germany and demanded that the nation be “turned upside down in key policy areas.”
Steiner’s anti-immigration stance was evident in her accusation of her competitors for “putting the country in an extremely difficult position” by allowing “uncontrolled mass migration,” which she referred to as a “invasion.”
The number of unlawful border crossings is at an all-time high, and the borders are open and unsecured, the speaker added. In Bavaria, we want repatriation that is regulated and consistent with the law in addition to an upper limit.
Steiner attacked the right-wing FW and blasted it for “supporting all the wrong decisions of the CSU in the last five years.” She claimed that the other party’s platforms and election speeches were plagiarized by Hubert Aiwanger, the party’s head.
Despite being involved in an antisemitic crisis, the FW has made advances in the polls in the run-up to the election on Sunday. According to latest data, the party is currently in second place after the CSU with 16% of the vote.
Antisemitism dispute
Since the most recent state election in 2018, Bavaria’s FW, a relatively new party founded in 1998, has been in coalition with the CSU. The two parties share socially conservative and economically liberal views.
The party, which began as a small grassroots movement, has gained support and prominence to take a significant role in Bavarian politics. However, outside of the southern state, little is known about it.
Prior to the election on Sunday, the party found itself in the middle of an antisemitic controversy. Following a revelation that was initially published in Germany’s Süddeutesche Zeitung newspaper that said he had distributed flyers insulting Holocaust victims during his school days, leader Hubert Aiwanger, who also serves as Bavaria’s finance minister, was charged with having far-right sympathies. According to Aiwanger, it hasn’t resulted to a decline in support for his party.
“The Süddeutsche Zeitung wanted to hurt me in my election campaign – but probably achieved the opposite,” Aiwanger stated in a statement to CNN.
“Many say they now vote for me even more because what they have tried to do here is indecent, bringing up stories from childhood and youth to damage a sitting minister,”
As FW is able to “catch” supporters who are dissatisfied with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the CSU, or the FDP, Aiwanger asserted that if it weren’t for his party, there would already be a strong AfD in Bavaria’s state government.
He asserted, “We are not a protest party; rather, we stop folks from becoming protest voters by identifying and resolving their immediate needs.
Despite demands for the resignation of the economy minister from across the political spectrum in Germany, Bavarian Premier Söder decided not to fire Aiwanger in response to the accusations.
Thomas Kreuzer, the leader of the CSU faction in the Bavarian legislature, provided the following explanation for Söder’s choice to CNN: “Throughout the time Aiwanger has worked with us politically, we have never been able to prove that he has pursued extremist or antisemitic impulses.
In these circumstances, it would be wholly inappropriate to fire a minister for whom many things are uncertain and cannot be verified, and which in any event occurred 35 years ago, while Aiwanger was still in school.
Members of Chancellor Scholz’s ruling SPD coalition, such as Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, criticized that stance and charged the Bavarian leader with harming Germany’s standing overseas.
In Bavaria, the environmental Greens are engaged in conflict with their right-wing adversaries. In the conservative state, center-left parties are often less well-liked. But this year, the Greens are polling at 15%, about where the FW and AfD are.
Even if the Greens won the election, it would be difficult to find other parties ready to collaborate with them. Before the vote on Sunday, Kreuzer ruled out a cooperation with the Greens.
On a political level, Kreuzer told CNN, “We have very little in common with the Greens, so a coalition would not be promising to make policies successful.”
We don’t want a government with traffic lights, by the way. We desire to be free from Bavarian traffic lights.
The elections in Hesse will be closely followed by the rest of the nation, especially as Interior Minister Faeser is running for governor on the SPD’s behalf even though he also serves as the nation’s top security official.
In an interview with the German publication Der Spiegel earlier this year, Faeser gave the following justification for her choice: “I’m the first woman to head the Interior Ministry, and I would like to be the first female governor of Hesse.”
Her chances of succeeding in this are still unknown. The CDU is in coalition with the Greens to rule Hesse, which used to be a bastion for the SPD.