March Madness is all about surprises, but history tells us that picking top seeds usually leads to success. A No. 1 seed has won the NCAA men’s tournament in six of the past seven years, with UConn dominating last year’s field. While underdogs are tempting, favorites tend to win. However, some high-ranked teams won’t last as long as expected, and identifying the most vulnerable squads can improve your bracket strategy. Let’s break down the No. 1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds most likely to falter before the Sweet 16.
No. 1 Seed Most Likely to Stumble: Houston
Houston is a strong No. 1 seed, but one key weakness could spell trouble: they struggle at the free-throw line. Ranked 317th nationally in free throws attempted per field goal attempt, Houston doesn’t take full advantage of easy points. They’re also outside the top 100 in free throw percentage, which could be costly in close games.
Beyond that, their potential second-round matchup is daunting. Gonzaga, a No. 8 seed, ranks ninth in KenPom efficiency ratings—far higher than typical No. 8 seeds. While Houston has reached the second weekend in five straight tournaments, Gonzaga has done so nine years in a row. This potential clash could end Houston’s run earlier than expected.
No. 2 Seed Most Likely to Disappoint: Tennessee
Tennessee is a tough, defensive-minded squad, but history is not on their side. Head coach Rick Barnes has a track record of underwhelming tournament performances, with only one Final Four appearance in 38 years. His 28-26 tournament record includes many early exits, and against the spread, he’s been one of the least reliable coaches in March.
Tennessee plays at a slow tempo and doesn’t get much production from its bench, making them vulnerable in close games. A second-round meeting with UCLA could be challenging, as Bruins coach Mick Cronin has a reputation for out-coaching opponents in the tournament. If Tennessee advances, they may face Kentucky, a team that swept them in the regular season. With such a tough road ahead, Tennessee is a risky pick to go deep.
No. 3 Seed Most Likely to Crash: Wisconsin
Wisconsin impressed with a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament, but that success could work against them. Playing four games in four days is exhausting, and now they must adjust quickly to playing in Denver’s high altitude. If they face BYU in the second round, they’ll be up against a team that’s accustomed to playing at elevation—an advantage that shouldn’t be overlooked.
The Badgers also struggle in key statistical areas. They rank 331st in turnover rate and 332nd in block percentage, meaning they don’t force many mistakes or protect the rim well. These weaknesses give underdogs confidence, making Wisconsin a prime candidate for an early exit.
No. 4 Seed Most Likely to Fall Early: Texas A&M
Texas A&M’s position in the South Region immediately stood out as vulnerable. Their first-round opponent, Yale, could pose a serious threat. The Aggies are a dominant offensive rebounding team, ranking first in offensive rebound rate, but they struggle with overall shooting efficiency (317th in effective field-goal percentage).
Meanwhile, Yale is one of the nation’s best three-point shooting teams (ranking ninth) and is excellent at limiting offensive rebounds (22nd). They also take care of the basketball, ranking 19th in turnover rate. While the SEC is much tougher than the Ivy League, Yale has proven capable of big upsets, having defeated Auburn last year. Additionally, Texas A&M ended the season on a 2-5 skid, showing signs of inconsistency.
Final Thoughts
While No. 1 and No. 2 seeds often make deep runs, history shows that some highly ranked teams won’t make it to the Sweet 16. Houston’s struggles at the free-throw line and tough potential matchup make them a risky choice. Tennessee’s history of underachievement under Rick Barnes raises red flags. Wisconsin faces fatigue and a tough draw, while Texas A&M’s shooting struggles make them a prime upset target. If you want to boost your bracket odds, consider fading these top seeds.
About the Author
