Disney’s latest live-action adaptation, Snow White, is on track for an opening weekend in the mid-$40 million range at the domestic box office. The film, starring Rachel Zegler and Gal Gadot, is expected to bring in around $15.5 million on Friday, including $3.5 million from Thursday previews. This projection places Snow White alongside Dumbo (2019), which also debuted with approximately $46 million over its first three days, despite having a significantly lower production budget—$170 million compared to Snow White’s hefty $270 million.
The film’s performance will largely depend on weekend family audiences, particularly women and young girls. Snow White has been a topic of controversy leading up to its release, but Disney hopes its brand power will drive turnout. Meanwhile, Warner Bros.’ The Alto Knights, starring Robert De Niro, is struggling, projected to land in fifth place with a modest $3 million opening weekend, well below expectations for its $50 million budget.
Audience Reception and Industry Comparisons
Early audience reactions show that Snow White has resonated with young children, earning a 5-star rating from kids under 12, with 84% of that demographic being girls. However, general audience scores are more lukewarm, averaging 3 stars, with a low “definite recommend” rate of 39%. In comparison, The Alto Knights slightly edges out Snow White in this metric with a 44% recommend rate. Parents accompanying their children to Snow White rated it 2.5 stars but had a higher definite recommend rate of 52%.
Quorum, an industry tracking firm, noted that the best comparable title for Snow White is 2023’s The Little Mermaid, which also faced social media backlash regarding its casting. Initially, projections suggested a $60 million-plus debut for Snow White, but declining interest among women under 35—dropping from 58% six weeks ago to 52%—has significantly impacted forecasts. In contrast, The Little Mermaid saw a late surge in interest among the same demographic, which helped push it past $68 million in its debut.
Thursday Previews and Initial Performance
Thursday night previews for Snow White brought in $3.5 million, surpassing the $2.3 million of Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (2019) and Dumbo’s $2.6 million, both of which had similar box office trajectories. For context, Kung Fu Panda 4 recently earned $3.8 million in previews before opening to $57.8 million.
The ultimate success of Snow White depends on family turnout over the weekend, particularly as spring break provides a potential audience boost. About 25% of K-12 schools were off on Friday, with similar attendance patterns expected over the next few weeks.
Industry Expectations and Critical Reception
Despite the film’s high awareness (94%), overall interest sits at just 39%, raising questions about whether Snow White can surpass the $50 million mark. The film’s star, Rachel Zegler, has drawn significant media attention in the months leading up to its release, though Disney hopes that audiences will ultimately judge the movie on its own merits.
Directed by Marc Webb and featuring music by Oscar-winning duo Pasek and Paul, Snow White is a high-production-value musical backed by industry heavyweights, including producer Marc Platt and screenwriter Greta Gerwig, who contributed script revisions. However, critical reception has been lukewarm, with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 46%. For comparison, Maleficent (54% Rotten, $69.4M debut), Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (40% Rotten), and Aladdin (57% Rotten, $91.5M debut) all overcame weak reviews to perform well at the box office.
Box Office Outlook
With Snow White playing in over 4,200 theaters, including premium formats like IMAX, 4DX, and Dolby, Disney remains hopeful for a strong turnout from families. Meanwhile, The Alto Knights continues to struggle, with low preview numbers and a 38% Rotten Tomatoes score, failing to generate significant buzz.
Ultimately, Snow White’s success will depend on whether audiences can look past the pre-release controversies and embrace it as a well-produced family musical. While a $60 million opening once seemed possible, current projections place it closer to the mid-$40 million range. With strong weekend attendance, it could still surprise, but for now, Snow White faces an uphill battle to recoup its massive budget.
